Sun 5 Sep 2010
Australia Still Waiting for a New Government
Posted by Australia / Kevin Rennie under Balkers
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Australia Still Waiting for a New Government
A week after its election, Australia is waiting for a new government. Neither side won a majority of the 150 House of Representative seats. Though counting is still continuing, the likely result is:
72 Australian Labor Party, 73 Liberal/National Parties, 1 Greens, 4 Independents. The nation watches while negotiations take place to form a minority government.
Bloggers have been busy speculating not only on possible outcomes but also the reasons for the hung parliament. At his self-titled site Adrian Phoon speculates on the rise of the Greens, blaming the ALP for its own woes:
The ALP’s assumption that it could rely on the progressive vote even when it offered progressive voters little comfort was proven false. (Obama in the US would do well to take note of the ALP’s election woes.)
He echoes a common cry:
One thing’s for sure: the ALP needs to get back on the climate change bandwagon, for its own sake as well as the planet’s, and soon.
Australian Election 2010: How the Left Was Won
Colin Jacobs of Electronic Frontiers had campaigned hard against the Labor Government’s proposed internet filter. He sees the result as vindication:
I believe many internet users had their political consciousness awoken by this attempt to slap censorship on the country's net connections. When this issue was important to people, it didn't just put them slightly off-side, but made them hopping mad, if not lifelong skeptics of the ALP.
How you shaped the Election
At Café Whispers, a blog where I occasionally post, Nasking laments the state of play:
What does surprise me is the amount of people who are willing to vote for these “win at all costs”, “say & do anything to gain power” politicians & media allies who often display the moral development level of a “me me me” adolescent willing to destroy all of the community fair’s Leggo constructions because they didn’t get the blue ribbon & prizes when they expected them…and petulantly stand with hands on hips screeching out: REMATCH!!!.
Duckpond is more concerned with one big issue than who forms government:
Next week we will probably have a government to replace the caretaker government but will we have a government prepared to act on Global Warming?
… Global warming is not an issue that will go away. It is a looming crisis unfolding over the next century that demands policy, foresight and courage. If the non-scientific opinion is put aside, its effects will impact Australia as anywhere else on the globe.
… A week may be a long time in politics, but is a short moment in global warming.
WAITING IS NOT A OPTION
The gay marriage blog has renewed hope for legalisation, touched with realism:
With the Greens now potentially holding the balance of power in both houses of Parliament gay marriage has never been closer to the political centre stage.
… In fact, all it would take would be the opportunity to introduce a Private Member’s Bill with a subsequent free vote. Gillard could even take some of the credit if she dared – by having a Labor MP introduce the bill. If that sounds alarms on her political radar a Greens Senator or Bandt could do it.
… the post-election negotiations are a tough moment for gays and the politicians they have placed their faith in.
AUSTRALIAN GREENS MUST HOLD LINE
The Political Sword has two posts on what may have brought about the election result. They analyse possible factors:
The Rudd factor seems to be the most convincing explanation of why it has come to this. There are many others: the Gillard factor, the Queensland factor, the NSW factor, the Abbott factor, the Coalition factor, the media factor, and even more. They are for other pieces.
Its conclusion:
I still like Kevin Rudd. I believe him to be a fine person of high integrity and lofty ideals who has a splendid vision for this nation, and many policy ideas for improving the lot of its people. It has been the process of implementing policy and communicating with the electorate that has come unstuck and has disappointed so many of us who have supported him throughout. But I for one still admire him and regret it has come to this.
More on: How has it come to this?
Lorenzo at Thinking Out Aloud is far more optimistic than the rest:
It was reasonable to complain about the limited substance in the recent Federal election campaign, and the hung Parliament result made its own statement about the lack of defining content in the election. Yet, we also had two personable, intelligent, public-spirited people on offer as Prime Minister. Leading proposed ministerial line-ups of generally sensible and experienced people. (Claims that there is some great moral urgency that one or other lose or win, or that one or other becoming PM is some grounds for moral despair, tell us far more about the folk indulging in such extravagances than Julia or Tony.) The election campaign was fought with a lack of violence we take entirely for granted but would be regarded as a miracle in large parts of the globe.
The Lucky Country
At Peter Black’s group blog Election Blackout, Emma Anderson has some meta-blogging, blogging about blogging about the election. She also hits a positive note:
… being part of this blog, has had a strong impact on how I see the world of politics. I'm still cynical, I strongly believe that much needs to change, and I believe that being a voice of dissent and criticism is absolutely neccessary. However, for the first time, I feel like my vote might actually have counted, and I'm kicking myself for not having been enrolled in time.
… We need to encourage people to think for themselves. To be a voice against propaganda, a voice in favour of facts, not agendas. We need to respect the diversity of our culture and our people, but we also need to balance this out realistically. The world should be run on the best ideas and the facts, not on ideology.
A future blog developing out of this blog: some personal as well as more general lessons
Orange Tim at Despatches from Agent Orange hopes that a hung parliament may bring some changes to the way our legislature operates:
One thing is for sure, I reckon there are a large number of voters who are probably thinking it’s time for some sort of parliamentary reform. To be blunt, politicians are frequently “reforming” the way we live & work, yet aren’t so keen on reforming their neck of the woods.
He also wants to see some constructive soul searching by the major parties:
I’m certain that the major parties will both be looking inwards and looking to reform themselves. If they’re not, then they’ve got some issues. It’s very clear the Australian voters believe they have issues and need to reform their parties.
Australia waits
He’s not alone in those sentiments.
By Kevin Rennie
· Posted 30 August 2010
Here is an update from today’s Wall Street Journal:
Australian Lawmakers Near Power Deal
By ENDA CURRAN
SYDNEY—Australia’s three independent lawmakers, crucial to determining the makeup of a new minority government, are close to deciding which party they will back.
An announcement is likely early in the week, though it is unclear how substantive any deal will be and whether the three will move in unison.
A decision by the three—Rob Oakeshott, Bob Katter and Tony Windsor, who have been negotiating as a team—will end weeks of political and policy stalemate. An inconclusive Aug. 21 election left neither Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s center-left Labor Party nor Tony Abbott’s conservative Liberal-National coalition with a majority to govern alone, the country’s first hung parliament since 1940.
Of critical importance will be whether the three lawmakers decide to create a bloc in backing Ms. Gillard or Mr. Abbott and whether their oath of allegiance to the chosen candidate extends beyond issues of supply—that is, funding for existing operations—and confidence to agreements on broader policy areas.
While the lawmakers have said they will be influenced by each others’ decision and that moving as a group will promote stability, they are divided on issues, including Labor’s planned mining tax and plan for a carbon-trading system.
One measure that could ultimately bind them is Ms. Gillard’s planned A$43 billion (US$39.43 billion) rollout of a national broadband network, which is high on the wish lists of all three, who represent rural electorates. The conservative opposition has pledged a cheaper, scaled-down broadband plan.
The three lawmakers, locked in frantic talks over the weekend with advisers and officials from both major parties, were tight-lipped on which side they would back.
“We’re down to last-minute negotiations,” Mr. Katter told Dow Jones Newswires. A spokesman for Mr. Oakeshott said an announcement should come Monday or Tuesday; Mr. Windsor concurred.
“By Tuesday it will all be over,” he told Dow Jones Newswires.
The momentum appears to be behind Ms. Gillard’s Labor Party, which last week won the support of a fourth independent, Andrew Wilkie, and signed an alliance with the Greens, the party that holds the balance of power in the upper house.
The backing of the Greens’ sole lower-house member, Andrew Bandt, means Ms. Gillard now controls 74 seats in the 150-seat lower house of Parliament, where governments are formed, against 73 seats for Abbott.
Opinion polls in national newspapers over the weekend found a majority of those surveyed backed a Labor government over Abbott’s coalition.
The three independents, former members of the National party, have been critical of Mr. Abbott since a Treasury Department analysis of his party’s election finances found an A$11 billion gap. They have also accused conservative politicians of attempting to force their decision by making threats and hostile telephone calls.
In what appeared to be a last-ditch plea to win their support, Mr. Abbott argued in a newspaper column Sunday that a Labor-Greens alliance will weaken both Australia’s economy and its relationship with the U.S.
“The slightest move towards Green defense and foreign policies would put the American alliance at risk,” Mr. Abbott wrote in the Daily Telegraph.
He also has argued that Labor has no legitimacy to rule because the Liberals won a larger popular vote and more seats.
One area where both sides of the divide are close to agreement on is an overhaul of the parliamentary process being spearheaded by Mr. Oakeshott, including the establishment of a new parliamentary budget office, greater independence for the Speaker of the House, and new time limits on questions and answers.
The Minerals Council of Australia added to the pressure on the independents with weekend advertisements in newspapers around the country highlighting the contribution of mining to the economy and calling on the three to oppose Labor’s mining tax.
Shortly after deposing Kevin Rudd as prime minister, Ms. Gillard struck a deal with the largest mining companies to back a lighter version of his proposed tax on the industry, with a 30% headline-rate profit tax on iron ore and coal mines, instead of the originally proposed 40% on all mined commodities.
Despite his removal at the hands of Ms. Gillard, Mr. Rudd has been canvassing the support of Mr. Katter to back the Labor Party. If Mr. Gillard can retain office, it means Mr. Rudd will hold a senior ministry, cabinet member Anthony Albanese told Channel Nine television.
“There’s no doubt that Kevin Rudd has a major contribution to make as part of a Gillard government,” Mr. Albanese said, adding, “A decision is imminent and that’s a good thing for the country.”
Still, if Labor does win office, governing with a slim majority won’t be easy, Health Minister Nicola Roxon told the Australian Broadcasting Corp. “It will be fragile,” she said.
Copyright ©2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Australia’s Gillard clings on as prime minister
By Mark Chipperfield, The Daily Telegraph September 7, 2010
Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard delivers her victory speech after been given the numbers to form the new government at Parliament House in Canberra on September 7, 2010.
Photograph by: Torsten Blackwood, AFP
Australia’s first female prime minister has clung on to her position after striking a 6 billion pound deal ($9.63 billion Cdn) to win the support of two independent MPs.
Julia Gillard will lead the country’s first minority government in 67 years, although the defection of just one MP could bring down her administration, leaving her hostage to byelections and the whims of politicians.
The result comes 17 days after Australians went to the polls and 10 weeks after she ousted the former prime minister, Kevin Rudd, in a coup.
The Labor Party leader, who left Barry in Wales with her parents at the age of four as a “pounds 10 Pom”, said in her acceptance speech: “The events of the past fortnight show us unequivocally that our democracy is very, very strong indeed. Labor is prepared to deliver stable, effective and secure government for the next three years.
“Let our parliament be more open than it ever was before.?.?. I know that if we fail in this solemn responsibility, we will be judged harshly when we next face the Australian people [at a general election].”
Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor were the two MPs who broke the deadlock when they backed a minority Labor government. Earlier in the day, Bob Katter, a fellow Independent, broke ranks, announcing that he would back a centre-Right coalition government led by Tony Abbott of the Liberal Party.
While Mr Oakeshott and Mr Windsor said that their main priority was to ensure stable government, it was clear that they were swayed by Labor’s promise to spend almost 6 billion pounds on programs to support regional Australia.
Mr Abbott lost despite winning one more seat than Ms Gillard because he did not meet the 76 seats needed to form a government.
He said he would “ferociously” hold the new regime to account.
Ms Gillard hopes to use her three-year term to push through plans for a 30 per cent mining tax and to deliver fast Internet access to all households. Explaining his decision to back a Left-of-centre Labor government rather than the coalition, Mr Windsor agreed that Labour’s spending package was just too tempting.
Despite Ms Gillard’s thin majority, John Warhurst, a political scientist at the Australian National University, said there was little imminent threat of the government collapsing. “I think they’ll be stable, for a good length of time anyway.?.?. [The independents] all want to reserve the right to give the government time to make it work,” he said.
Ms Gillard, who has said that Australia should have a referendum on becoming a republic, visited Quentin Bryce, the Governor-General and the Queen’s representative in Australia, to advise her that she has the numbers to form a government.
With the support of a Green MP and the two Independents, Ms Gillard ended with 76 seats in the 150-seat parliament and Mr Abbott with 74.
© Copyright (c) The Daily Telegraph