On a previous blog I raised the point about global population, but this attracted very little attention. Since it seems to me a crucial point, I’m raising it under a new heading.
The point of departure before was that an ageing population is an unmitigated and irretrievable disaster. I am saying that (1) it’s not necessarily as bad as that and (2) bad or not, we’ll have to bite the bullet or face a really irretrievable disaster.
One often hears that Earth is not overpopulated at all: if things were properly arranged, there would be enough for everybody. But even if Earth is not overpopulated now, eventually it must be. And human nature isn’t going to change. The powerful (by endowment or by nature) will claim a greater share than the weak and powerless.
Another myth is that of ‘replacement’. As long as each couple produces only two children – in other words, reproduce themselves – numbers cannot get out of hand. But (even if this replacement thing could be enforced) most people reproduce long before their own parents have died. Three or even four generations are alive at the same time; and there is a drive on the part of the medical profession and others to extend life at all costs, regardless of its quality. I have two children, five grandchildren; the youngest is only 19 now, and none of them have started reproducing yet.
In theory, the birth rate can start falling at once. We’re told that in the West it is already falling (I don’t know: I was shocked to see a comment by an educated English person that a falling birthrate would reduce the nation’s power and international standing). In practice, I don’t see how the global birth rate can be reduced below the death rate, which is what it amounts to.
So there we are. Resources are running out (oil, water, arable land); other species are being crowded out by ourselves and our animals and crops; the ecological balance slips further out of control every day. So does pollution. Oh, we’re very clever, but we’re not really convinced or motivated. We still imagine that the earth and the oceans are big enough to absorb our impact.
If we could arrest the birth rate right now, we would have an ageing population for a while. How bad is that? People remain active much longer than they used to; in part it balances out. But in any case, it’s not as though young populations are problem-free. A young population may cost more in education and job creation, an older one in health care. The young may have to support the old. But in an emerging country like my own, you have high unemployment and a low tax base; a similar situation, but we look forward to better days.
If we can start arresting the birth rate now, attention could shift to a better quality of life. Education and other social services could start catching up. Better technology would enable us to repair the ravages to our planet.
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